Pharmacetuical Book from C.H.I.P.S.

Pharmaceutical Product Strategy
Using Dynamic Modeling for Effective Brand Planning
by Mark Paich

Pharmaceutical Product Strategy details a cutting-edge approach to the challenges involved in product launches, the brand planning process, and the modeling of patient, physician, and prescription behavior that are vital for product success.


  • Provides an operational approach that quantifies key relationships and identifies the importance of each when formulating a Brand Plan
  • Contains illustrations of numerous DM structures that let you see the examples of the approach in a wide variety of situations
  • Explores optimization, Monte Carlo analysis, real options, robust decision making, and bounding-cutting-edge tools that can be applied to the basic DM framework
  • Details the concept of product treatment attractiveness and choice models, conjoint analysis, competitive sets, data collection/estimation, and market estimation
  • Includes an example of a market model that provides sample metrics, forecasting options, and scenario analysis possibilities
  • Extends the DM framework to issues of pipeline portfolio management and risk analysis


Traditional Approaches to Brand Planning: The Discounnect Between Product Strategies and Commercial Evaluations

  • Typical Approach for Strategic/brand Planning in the Pharmaceutical Industry
  • Limitations Found in the Existing Brand Planning Process

Dyanamic Modeling Approach to Brand Planning: Operationally Understanding Key Marketplace Dynamics

  • The Link between Structure and Behavior
  • Three Key Sectors of the Dynamic Modeling of Pharmaceutical Marketplaces
  • Overview of Dynamic Modeling Advantages

The Dynamic Modeling Language

  • Dynamic Modeling
  • Advantages of the Dynamic Modeling Approach
  • Dynamic Modeling Language

Patient Flow Sector of the Standard Template Dynamic Model

  • Properties of Disease Indications Fitting into the Standard Template Dynamic Model
  • Epidemiology
  • Introduction to Extended Standard Template Example
  • Compliance/Persistency
  • Treatment Options
  • Key Treatment Change Dynamics Captured by MECE Formulation
  • Key Insights from Treatment Change Matrix Data
  • Patient Flow Allocation

Extensions of the Standard Template

  • Stages of Diagnosis
  • Nonchronic Diseases
  • Misdiagnosis Stage
  • Progression of Lines of Therapy
  • Disaggregation

Data for the Standard Template Dynamic Model

  • Patient Stock Data
  • Sources of Patient Stock Data
  • Patient Flow Data

Specific Models of Patient Flow Dynamics

  • Event-Based Decision Tree
  • Medical Procedures
  • Trial-Repeat Models

Dynamic Models of Doctor Adoption of Newly Released Pharmaceuticals

  • Doctor Adoption of Pharmaceutical Products
  • Calibration of Structure to Historical Data
  • Expanding the Dynamic Model to Include Causal Factors of External Influence
  • Segmentation

Treatment Attractiveness of Pharmaceutical Products

  • Assumptions Involved in Treatment Attractiveness Scoring
  • Determining Aggregate Treatment Attractiveness
  • Determining Factors of Treatment Attractiveness
  • Determining Importance of Treatment Attractiveness Factors
  • Determining if Importance of Treatment Attractiveness Factors Changes Over Time
  • Determining Ratings of Treatment Attractiveness Factors
  • Calculation of Treatment Attractiveness
  • Treatment Attractiveness by Patient Segmentation
  • Steps in the Treatment Attractiveness Process
  • Extension: Reducing the Number of Treatment Options in the MECE Set

Integrating the Three Sectors of the Standard Template Dynamic Model

  • Logit Choice Algorithms
  • Extending to Other Patient Flow Allocations
  • An Alternate Approach to Switching Treatment Algorithms
  • Incorporating Doctor Adoption/Prescribing Behavior
  • Bringing the Three Sectors Together

Strategy Testing Using Integrated Standard Template Model

  • Strategy Framework for New Compound Introductions
  • Recap of Example Dynamic Model Market Conditions
  • Patient Flow Metrics
  • Patient Flow Allocations
  • Combining Patient Flow Metrics and Allocation
  • Doctor Adoption Metrics
  • Combining Case, Place, and Pace Strategies

Dynamic Modeling of First Mover Advantage and Network Effects

  • Accelerated NCE Development
  • Reinforcing Feedback Effects
  • Case Study: Illustrative Example of Analyzing Network Effects Using Dynamic Modeling
  • Using Dynamic Modeling to Estimate First Mover Advantage
  • Summarizing Network Effects and First Mover Advantage

Dynamic Modeling of New Marketplaces: Techniques for Dealing with Uncertainity

  • Case Study: Using Dynamic Modeling in Latent Marketplaces
  • The Role of Uncertainty in Mental and Dynamic Models
  • Bounding the Possibilities: Stock/Flow Structure
  • Approaches for Coping with Uncertainty in Model Relationships
  • Managing Uncertainty around Dynamic Modeling Parameters

Integrating Standard Template Dynamic Models Across Indications

  • Overlap of Patients
  • Misdiagnosis
  • Physician Prescribing Feedback
  • Patient Feedback between Indications

Dynamic Modeling of Pharmaceutical Pipeline Portfolio Issues

  • Establishing a Dynamic Model Framework for Drug Development
  • Populating the Stock/Flow Framework
  • Modeling Terminology: Continuous vs. Agent-Based Models
  • Incorporating Compound Failure Rates
  • Analysis of Pipeline Dynamics
  • Dynamic Modeling vs. Alternative Analysis Tools
  • Extensions of the Basic Structure
  • Taking a Compound to the OTC Market
  • In-Licensing Compounds
  • Out-Licensing Compounds
  • Line Extensions from Parent Compounds
  • Incorporating Probability Distributions for Input Parameters
  • Calculating Compound Revenue Using the Standard Template
  • Computing Resource Requirements
  • Strategy Tests Using the Dynamic Model Simulation


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Pharmaceutical Product Strategy
Using Dynamic Modeling for Effective Brand Planning
by Mark Paich

328 pages $228.95 + shipping
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