Food Microbiology Reference Book from C.H.I.P.S.

Modeling Microbial Responses in Foods
edited by Robin C. McKellar
and Xuewen Lu


  • Provides information on experimental design and use of primary and secondary models, with examples of fitting strategies
  • Presents methods and approaches for relating models to food and food processing
  • Discusses growth and survival models with a primary focus on microbial applications
  • Includes information on fitting models to experimental data, sources of variation, pitfalls, and solutions

The first state-of-the-art review of this dynamic field in a decade, Modeling Microbial Responses in Foods provides the latest information on techniques in mathematical modeling of microbial growth and survival. The comprehensive coverage includes basic approaches such as improvements in the development of primary and secondary models, statistical fitting strategies, and novel data collection methods.

An international team of experts explore important developing areas, including specific applications, challenges in applying models to foods, variability and uncertainty, and new modeling strategies. The authors present detailed descriptions of non-linear regression fitting, methods, approaches relevant to 'real world' situations, and extensive applications of predictive models. They conclude by highlighting the strengths and weaknesses in the field and areas for future work, and attempt to resolve some of the outstanding conflicts.

The book includes strategies for combining databases, improving researcher networks, and standardization of applications packages. Providing the uninitiated with enough information to begin developing their own models, Modeling Microbial Responses in Foods covers all aspects of growth and survival modeling from the primary stage of gathering data to the implementation of final models in appropriate delivery systems.


  1. Experimental Design and Data Collection
    1. Experimental Design
    2. Data Collection

  2. Primary Models
    1. Growth Models
    2. Survival Models

  3. Secondary Models
    1. Introduction
    2. Secondary Models for Growth Rate and Lag Time
    3. Secondary Models for Inactivation
    4. Probability Models
    5. Characterization of Environmental Parameters Affecting Microbial Kinetics in Food

  4. Model Fitting and Uncertainty
    1. Overview
    2. Model Fitting
    3. Uncertainty in Lag Times, Generation Times, and Its Consequences

  5. Challenge of Food and the Environment
    1. Role of Food Heterogeneity
    2. Modeling the Food Environment
    3. Hurdle Concept
    4. Competition with Other Microorganisms
    5. Adaptation and Injury
    6. Validation in Foods

  6. Software Programs to Increase the Utility of Predictive Microbiology Information
    1. Model Interfaces
    2. Databases
    3. Expert Systems

  7. Modeling Microbial Dynamics Under Time-Varying Conditions
    1. General Dynamic Modeling Methodology
    2. Example I: Individual-Based Modeling of Microbial Lag
    3. Example II: Modeling Microbial Interaction with Product Inhibition

  8. Predictive Microbiology in Quantitative Risk Assessment
    1. Assessing Microbial Risks
    2. Role of Predictive Microbiology in QRA
    3. Scope of Risk Assessments
    4. Process Risk Modeling
    5. Examples of Risk Modeling
    6. Modifying Risk: Concentration vs. Prevalence
    7. What is the Right Model to Use?

  9. Modeling the History Effect on Microbial Growth and Survival: Deterministic and Stochastic Approaches
    1. Modeling the History Effect at Population Level (Deterministic Modeling)
    2. Modeling the History Effect at Single-Cell Level (Stochastic Modeling)

  10. Models - What Comes After the Next Generation?
    1. Cross-Contamination
    2. Inoculum Size Modeling
    3. Cross-Contamination and Inoculum Size

  11. Predictive Mycology
    1. Concerns
    2. Mold Specificities
    3. Models
    4. Perspectives

  12. An Essay on the Unrealized Potential of Predictive Microbiology
    1. A Short History and the Philosophy of Predictive Microbiology
    2. The Basics of Predictive Modeling
    3. Addressing Concerns in Predictive Modeling
    4. Modeling Fungal Growth
    5. Application of Predictive Microbiology


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Modeling Microbial Responses in Foods
edited by Robin C. McKellar and Xuewen Lu
360 pages $158.95 + shipping
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